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Tick, tick, tick

There is a lot of speculation underway about when Israel will hit Iranian nuclear facilities. I left the if out of that formulation as I believe it is a foregone conclusion. The "tick, tick tick" represents the current show down over the fueling of the Busehr reactor. Since our fully reset Russian allies have decided to "maybe" finally give the Iranians the fuel to fire that sucker up, that leaves a small window before blowing it would cause some radioactive fallout in addition to the considerable political and security fallout. The Walrus, John Bolton, says that if they are gonna do it, now is good.

WASHINGTON (AFP) – Israel has "eight days" to launch a military strike against Iran's Bushehr nuclear facility and stop Tehran from acquiring a functioning atomic plant, a former US envoy to the UN has said.

Iran is to bring online its first nuclear power reactor, built with Russia's help, on August 21, when a shipment of nuclear fuel will be loaded into the plant's core.

if the Iranians get this reactor up it creates and entirely new problem as they would have another way of making a bomb and an even more powerful and efficient one at that. This would be a plutonium device which could be much smaller and hence easier to put on oh let's say a ballistic missile.

There come's a point where the Israelis really don't gain anything from waiting and we are purt near there. I don't think anyone, even Obama, expects sanctions to do anything especially with both the Russians and the Chinese selling the Iranians whatever they need to beat them. I would be very surprised if the Israelis had simply decided that maybe the mullahs aren't crazy and maybe they can live with a nuked-up nuttah neighbor. That means we are in the midst of one countdown window and if the fueling of the reactor is actually happening we could see Bombs over Busehr sometime soon.