BlackFive

The reports have been coming in for a while now that Russian president Medpuppet has ordered Russian forces to halt. Pull back? Maybe. One thing remains unchanged, and that is the Russian position that the Georgia's President Mikhail Saakashvili must go, possibly along with all the rest of his government. When you listen to the report, or read it, please note that there are a lot of caveats and that events in and out of Georgia can make or break this. As for why they suddenly decided to do this, well, there is a lot of room for speculation. While there have been two or three previous attempts to declare or broker a cease fire that Russia has ignored or dismissed, the larger members of the EU are behind the current effort and that could be a factor. What hasn't been said to Putin openly must also factor large into this. So, as of this morning we appear to have:

Cease Fire, most likely in place, maybe
Caveat that Russians can quell any signs of Georgian "resistance"
Demand that Georgian president go (along with government depending probably)
Demand that Georgia stay out of both major secessionist areas forever

The Russian demands will break Georgia if any or all of them are acknowledged or implemented. If any of these are accepted, the result will be a Moscow-controlled government and a re-enslaved Georgia.

Georgia may yet survive as a free nation, but that will depend much on its neighbors and the EU. If major members of the EU, along with its neighbors and Baltic allies stand firm, Georgia has a chance. This must happen if there is to be a chance, for only then can the weight of the U.S. and it's support hope to prevail.

Based on the demonstrations against Russia and for Georgia in the Baltic states and the support of the other "break-away" republics, this means that it is up to Europe, in particular Germany and France. If Europe waffles...

Regardless, one thing is very clear: Russia can't be trusted on any level. Until such time as that changes, Russia should be shunned from any new partnerships, memberships, and other items of commerce or development.

Much more, maybe later. I will update and expand as I can.

LW