High Level Strategery and Civilian Magic Ninjas

Posted By Uncle Jimbo

More signs that the "strategery" going on around the Afghan war is a soup sandwich being eaten in a chicken wire canoe while it is paddled up Shit Creek by a guy swinging a football bat wearing bowling cleats. Yeah I'm done tap dancing around this. Today's clusterf**k.

No one was happy to read in The Washington Post that Eikenberry, who commanded the war himself from 2005 to 2007, thinks that the Karzai government needs to demonstrate its commitment to anti-corruption measures before the administration can responsibly authorize another troop increase. The prevailing theory is that “he leaked his own cables” because “he has a beef with McChrystal,” the staffer said. Gen. Stanley McChrystal, Eikenberry’s successor as NATO commander in Afghanistan, has requested an increase in troops to support a counterinsurgency strategy with a substantial counterterrorism component.

But Eikenberry — who also briefed the White House by teleconference yesterday — reiterated his concerns. The ambassador told the NSC not to send additional troops to Afghanistan “without an exit strategy” and urged that the president to adopt a “purely civilian approach” with the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development in the lead, not the military. According to the NSC staffer, Eikenberry “wants a realignment” of USAID, the Afghanistan inspector general’s office and the State Department’s stabilization and reconstruction office. Eikenberry said President Obama “wants that” — although Obama was not in the meeting — and he hailed the arrival of the new USAID administrator-nominee, Rajiv Shah, “because he will not wage war when the org charts start changing.”

I am not an expert on ret. LTG Eikenberry, but his ideas seem to be complete fantasy. His last tour in country was as Commander of Combined Forces Command- Afghanistan from 2005-2007. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that when things there went completely into the shitter? 

Let's look at his cunning plan; he wants to make this a "purely civilian approach". That sounds so nice and has absolutely no chance of even happening. At the journalism fellowship Blake and I were at earlier this year we had this guy as a speaker.

Ambassador John Herbst, coordinator for Reconstruction & Stabilization, U.S. Department of State

He is the leader of the so-called civilian surge in the Stabilization and Reconstruction office Eikenberry mentions. They would be the ones to bring these non-uniformed magic ninjas to transform things into shangri-la. Keep in mind there are now only 1,000 US govt. civilians in Iraq and this guy has less than 350 to even add to that. We got a lot of time to ask him questions I let him have it from my long and fruitless experiences with State, USAID and UN civilians and their complete inability to affect conditions on the ground.

"Sir, if you are going to have any impact on the situation in Afghanistan your people are going to have to get outside the wire. It has been my experience that the risk-averse mentality of the State Dept. makes that highly unlikely. Are you willing to get a foreign service officer or other State employees killed in order to have success at your mission?"

After he was done spitting and spluttering, his answer was that as the military gave them space to work i.e. security, they would move into it. I want to state that I know there are brave folks on PRTs and other teams that do get out there all the time, but even they would admit they are the exceptions not the rule. So if wise Mr. Eikenberry is going to fix Afghanistan without military security, I sincerely hope that the cloaking devices his magic ninjas use to hide themselves from the Taliban are top notch, or maybe they can do a Team America valmorification and transform them all into terrorist look-alikes. Then a quick trip to language school to pick up some "Durka, Durka, Mohammed Jihad" and they are off to save the world. Team America World Bureaucrats.

"America, F**k Yeah. Coming again to teach you how to staff a memo. America, F**K Yeah. Admin is the only way yeah!

That'll strike fear in the hearts of the Taliban.

The American Valor Project

Posted By Uncle Jimbo

Stephens Media has an initiative underway to spotlight our new generation of heroes on the pages of their newspapers and their websites call the American Valor Project. It salutes those who have gone above and beyond the call in the war on terror. You will recognize some of the names from our Someone you should know series.

I think it is wonderful whenever major media outlets cover these stories and bring them to an audience that gets far too little of this. The series started on Nov. 8th and there are several stories up at the link already. We will keep you updated as it progresses.

Radio Time

Posted By Uncle Jimbo

I'm going to be on Gordon Liddy's show just after 11 am eastern today talking Afghanistan and possibly Ft. Hood. Will post the podcast after. You can listen live here.

Smartest guy in the room on Afghanistan

Posted By Uncle Jimbo

If this is true then just about all the worst fears we had about Obama as Commander in Chief are coming true.

WASHINGTON - President Barack Obama does not plan to accept any of the Afghanistan war options presented by his national security team, pushing instead for revisions to clarify how and when U.S. troops would turn over responsibility to the Afghan government, a senior administration official said Wednesday.

He has already had the advice of his entire military chain of command with a near unanimous call for for reinforcements to move to the strategy that won in Iraq. We have watched as he has heard from the deep wisdom of Joe Biden and Rahm Emanuel. We have seen him dither and quibble and show a completely ineffectual and uncommitted face to our enemies and the rest of the world. Now months after his hand-picked commander has told him the situation is bad and getting worse, our troops in the field fight and die without the support of their Commander in Chief. He sent 21,000 more brave men and women there and now they are flappin' in the breeze. How can a squad leader look his men in the eyes and tell them to saddle up and head out on a patrol, perhaps to be the last to die for a cause their President no longer believes in?

You can't set the circumstances for victory before you commit to trying to win one. You can't set your strategy based on the hope that quality government will just spring up in the midst of chaos with no security. You can't just magic a functional, fighting Afghan Army out of nothing without competent US forces to first beat the insurgency down to a manageable level. Then they take the Afghans to the field for joint operations to build their confidence just like we did in Iraq. If your goal is simply to turn things over to the Afghans, then hand them the goddamn keys right now. Make a couple of passes over the worst Taliban strongholds, bomb the living shit out of them and then bring our troops home.

Whatever decision you end up making, you have shown a complete lack of leadership ability. You have made the job of our military more difficult everywhere as our enemies have seen you are not the strong horse. This entire process reeks of politics and the hands of your slimy Chicago fixers Emanuel and Axelrod. Why do I think you are looking for someone to hand you a plan that lets you start retreating before your 2012 elections and an appointment with your left wing? Well the rest of us get to vote as well sir, and we are watching your every back sliding step. America doesn't go to war based on an exit strategy, we go to win. Think about that. Also think about just how wrong you were about Iraq, over and over and over. Go in to win or bring them home now.

Make the call!

Most realistic combat video game ever

Posted By Uncle Jimbo

(h/t HA) Holy crap. This might be funnier than those MMA guys giving wedgies. The most realistic depiction of life during wartime you may ever see short of enlisting yourself.

Gen. Jones talking to German magazine

Posted By Uncle Jimbo

(h/t Steve Hayes) President Obama's National Security Adviser is ret. Gen. James Jones. He recently gave an interview to the German magazine Spiegel in which he makes some statements that evoke questions about his commitment to our efforts in Afghanistan.

SPIEGEL: The Obama administration is reviewing the strategy for Afghanistan. General Stanley McChrystal, the top US commander in Afghanistan, is asking for additional troops.

Jones: Generals always ask for more troops. Take it from me.

SPIEGEL: You would know. You're also a general and you were in Afghanistan from 2003 to almost 2007 ...

Jones: ... and of course when I was there I asked for more troops. When we started in 2003, we had to develop a plan. So by definition, you have to ask for people.

SPIEGEL: And now you support General McChrystal's demand for 40,000 additional troops?

Jones: We are in the middle of a process with the president and all of his advisers in assessing the overall situation in Afghanistan. I believe we will not solve the problem with troops alone. The minimum number is important, of course. But there is no maximum number, however. And what's really important in Afghanistan is that with this new administration we insist on good governance, that it be coordinated with economic development and security, and that we have much, much better success at handing over responsibility for these three things to the Afghans.

Now so far I find little to disagree with although his somewhat flippant remark that Generals always ask for more troops is a warning sign.

SPIEGEL: Afghanistan is famously referred to as the "graveyard of empires."

Jones: I know and that's why I say we cannot solve the problems with only military forces. You can keep on putting troops in, and you could have 200,000 troops there and the country will swallow them up as it has done in the past. There are many empires who tried to make Afghanistan a stable and different country, and there have always been neighbors which were not interested in a stable and centralized government.

"You can keep on putting troops in, and you could have 200,000 troops there and the country will swallow them up as it has done in the past." That is the bit that worries me. It is a fair point to make, but coming from Jones who has already talked a little smack about McChrystal keeping his mouth shut etc, and his over all unhappiness w/ Karzai and the situation there I think he is a voice against fully resourcing the COIN efforts. The press continue to report that the options McChrystal asked for low medium and high risk topped out at 40k troops. That is not the case, he was told not to officially request the 60+ k that he felt were really warranted. So any triangulation down from 40k is already increasing the risk. I am sick as hell of the constant game of leak and counterleak as this administration attempts to fly what a prominent defense analyst this week told me is a "fleet of trial balloons". 

Win or lose, victory or defeat. Make the call sir!

Premiere of "The Surge- The untold story"

Posted By Uncle Jimbo

Today I attended the premiere screening of the Institute for the Study of War's documentary "The Surge- The untold story" which can be viewed in it's entirety at the link (click on Screening room). It's very well made and does an excellent job of reminding you just how bad things were and how much went into the amazing turnaround. It featured interviews w/ most of the major players incl. Gen. Petraeus, Amb. Crocker and many of the combatant commanders involved. I was interesting to think back to when this plan was being developed and discussed and see how many parallels there are to right now and the situation in Afghanistan. While there are stark differences between the two countries and conflicts, many of the basic arguments are the same.

After the screening there was a panel to discuss the Surge and take a few questions featuring:

Gen. Jack Keane (ret.) who was a proponent and architect of the Surge strategy

Kim Kagan who runs ISW and recently served on Gen. McChrystal's review of the Afghan situation.

Gen. Jim Dubik (ret.) who commanded MNI-STCI which was the group that trained all the Iraq security forces. While the US combat brigades that created the surge are the usual focus, Gen. Dubik's command trained and fielded 125,000 Iraqi Army and National Police in 15 months providing the vital indigenous element.

COL Dave Sutherland who commanded the Brigade in Diyala Province with the most diverse tribal population in Iraq during the Surge.

Michael Gordon a NY Times reporter who was embedded w/ multiple units during the Surge.

There were many factors that led to our success in Iraq and many of the lessons learned there can be applied to the Afghan war. It is chilling to consider defeat at the hands of al Qaeda and the Taliban and the resulting recruiting and fundraising bonanza that would give them. The President's long over due answer on Afghanistan, seems to be getting closer and I hope it gives our commanders the resources they need to win.

Here is the trailer for the film

Understanding the Surge - The Trailer from ISW on Vimeo.

Greyhawk covers the serious news

Posted By Uncle Jimbo

You gotta hand it to Greyhawk for his dogged pursuit of the most important stories about the military and national security. Today he posts the heartwarming tale of Combat Barbie.

Radio Sunday

Posted By Uncle Jimbo

Lots to talk about so I'm double dipping today.

5:15 pm Eastern on Arise America w/ Jim Kohlman

then 8:15 pm Eastern on Freedom Radio's Nitecap w/ Patricia Carfagno

Speaking of football- Navy downs Notre Dame

Posted By Uncle Jimbo

I find it hard to mouth the words given my loyalty and my Dad's West Point roots, but Go Navy beat Notre Dame. Which they just did, in a thrilling finish. 

Perfect day for kids playin' football

Posted By Uncle Jimbo

It's gorgeous here in VA, 60s with a bright blue sky, leaves blowing and the dog days of Summer behind us. I was out on my daily constitutional and stopped to watch some kids playing football. It is so much less violent than college or pro and it was a lot of fun to remember my own glory days with the Finneytown Falcons in Cincinnati. We played in the city championship when I was in 6th grade at UC Bearcat stadium, lost by a touchdown but it was a thrill anyhow. So here is a palate cleanser to remind us what we stand for, the victorious Wolfpack on to the championship game.

 
 

A warrior wades in

Posted By Uncle Jimbo

 

Officer Kimberly Munley is a warrior. When the murderous bastard at Ft. Hood started killing she stopped him and God bless her for that. 

I have avoided writing anything about this as my thoughts ought not to be paraded in public. This is a time to honor the dead, care for their families and give our thoughts and prayers to the wounded.

I will only say I'm glad the son of a bitch lived and we get to kill him properly. Do we still have firing squads?

Some expert commentary on the CIA's Italian Job

Posted By Uncle Jimbo

Yesterday I asked WTF about the CIA rendition op that ended up with 23 CIA personnel convicted of kidnapping for scarfing up a radical cleric. Today at NRO an expert answers definitively, poor tradecraft and bureaucrats trying to justify their existence. Sounds familiar to me. From a former deep cover guy.

We should capture terorists anywhere, any time, but we should get the job done right and with a minimum of bureaucracy. Real spying is inexpensive and requires few people. The basic act of espionage is a single CIA officer meeting a single source — a person with access to secrets on terrorists or nuclear proliferators, for example — in a dingy hotel room in a dysfunctional country.

Any CIA operation that is revealed to the public, however, shows these telltale signs: The operation looks busy, a lot of people are involved, and large amounts of money are spent. Often you’ll hear the CIA accused of being risk averse. I agree. However, risk aversion is a complex concept. The CIA will sometimes conduct risky operations in order to achieve a more important goal: looking busy. In the Abu Omar operation, 21 Agency employees flew to Italy to abduct a single terrorist suspect — as an eminent scholar put it, “21 people to get one fat Egyptian!” — who was already under surveillance by the Italian police. The 21 people stayed in five-star hotels and chatted with headquarters on open-line cell phones, all at great expense and awful tradecraft. The number of people managing the operation from headquarters was enormous. But it was a successful operation in that it spent a lot of money, made a lot of people look active, and suggested the CIA’s willingness to take risk.

Froggy said it in comments yesterday in his understated fashion.

The Agency screwed the pooch on this one big time. The fact that the Italians had the names of everybody in on the caper is a disturbing lack of OPSEC and tradecraft. The reason for this is that we do not have a robust capability in this area of covert operations. There are no Mitch Rapps or Jack Bauers out there folks. Those are fantastical creatures.

There are a handful of ex-SOF guys that are solid, but they are all operating in active combat zones. The rank and file clandestine service officer in the agency is a nerdy Ivy League punk with nuts the size of a field mouse's. Worse than them are the mandarins in management that are totally political and value their large government salaries and slush funds over all else.

CIA=ICP (Insane Clown Posse)

Stryker problems in Afghanistan?

Posted By Uncle Jimbo

There is a piece in the Washington Times today about possible problems using the Stryker in Afghanistan. It raises some scary points and if anyone has insight on this please pipe up, or email me and I will follow up.

Since they arrived at the outpost on Sept. 13, the Blackwatch unit - Bravo Company, 2nd Battalion, 1st Infantry Regiment, with the 5th Stryker Brigade - had lost three soldiers and two civil affairs officers. IEDs had destroyed three of their four Stryker vehicles. Overall, 21 of 350 Strykers have been destroyed since the 5th Brigade deployed in southern Afghanistan in July; more than two dozen Americans have been killed and nearly 70 wounded.

Soldiers call the Strykers "Kevlar coffins," Sgt. Rabidou said.

The Stryker is obviously not armored to the extent an MRAP is and it's game is speed and maneuverability. The problem is that we are currently still in a mode similar to Iraq in 2006 where our troops are mostly on bases and have to commute to work. The bad guys know this and are taking a heavy toll with IEDs. The key to beating that can either be to armor up or to work counter measures, which includes surveillance over roadways on a regular basis to identify them as or soon after they are emplaced, and also improved intel from the locals.

IEDs are a huge force multiplier for the enemy, and a tremendous challenge for us. However we did learn quite a bit in Iraq that can be applied to the problem in Afghanistan. Some may involve more heavily armored vehicles for transport and some will involve a closer relationship with the locals and staying close to them to cut down identifiable commuting patterns. Either way, or a combination of both, this is a problem that we have seen before and need to deal with as effectively as possible.