Beyond COIN v. CT or COIN + CT: An Emerging Third Position

Posted By Grim

How many troops do we need in Afghanistan?

Yesterday's publishing of State Department officer's letter of resignation brought us a practical expression of a theory:  essentially, that the unified insurgency would collapse if we weren't there for it to fight.  The theory holds that tribal ethic of "me against my brother, the two of us against our cousins, the four of us against our neighbors, all of us against the tribe across the ridge, all those tribes together against strangers..." is allowing the Pashtun-based Taliban to hold up a coalition that they couldn't manage without us present.  If we pulled back, or pulled out, these natural tensions would reassert themselves and the insurgency would be ripped apart from the inside.

There are several names associated with this theory that give it credibility.  The first is Dr. David Kilcullen, who needs no introduction to readers of BLACKFIVE.  His book The Accidental Guerrilla holds that there are two factions to the insurgencies we fight:  the hard-core ideologues who came to fight us, and the "accidental guerrillas" who got swept up into a fight that happened in their backyard.  Dr. Kilcullen gives advice not so much aimed at abandoning the fight, but on swaying those who have 'accidentally' fallen in with the enemy toward our side. 

Another, who should be as well known but is not, is MAJ Jim Gant, a Special Forces officer who has a new paper out on the subject of tribal engagement.  The paper is only 45 pages long, yet offers some fairly specific suggestions on how to reform current practices to support the strategy he proposes. [BlackFive edit. note:  Major Gant was a SYSK two and a half years ago for his courage and honor in Iraq, and there's a follow up piece here.]

In Iraq, tribal engagement is how the Awakening happened:  the tribal frictions began to pull some of the 'accidental' guerrillas away from AQI, and the Coalition was ready to do what it took to support their swing to our side of the conflict. 

How would that theory work in the absence of Coalition forces, which is what is being proposed in Afghanistan?  Presumably, one would wait for the tribal tensions to create open fissures between the hard core and the local tribals, and then make contact with those tribes and offer them support at a much-lower footprint:  perhaps with MAJ Gant's proposed SF advisors, or perhaps only with money and weapons.  In return for their support against terrorists, and tacit support for the government, they would be allowed to field forces and control their own territory (as the Sons of Iraq were so permitted).  This approach creates a whole new class of "warlords" in Afghanistan -- or reinforces existing ones -- but it could plausibly create a situation in which those warlords became clients of the Afghan government rather than foes of it. 

One of the hallmarks of COIN theory is that you shouldn't create local-national COIN forces that look like Western forces.  Rather, they should be organic to the local culture, so they will have credibility with the local culture instead of appearing to be a foreign imposition.  This approach suggests a modification of that basic hallmark:  you may need both.  At first, an organic tribal/militia force can actually win the fight on the ground.  The 'Westernized' security forces take longer to develop and purge of corruption, but are important to finalizing the peace and providing the central government with the ability to control the ground at the end of the day.

The Sons of Iraq are a good example of this, in just the way that the Iraqi Security Forces were not:  and it took the SOI to end the fight, so that the ISF could step in later and assume governance roles.  These roles may be in support of the tribes as much as they are in support of the central government:  the ISF becomes, as we have been, the negotiator between the central government they serve and the tribal leaders they work with every day.  In that way, they are the glue that holds the state together and allows for a final peace.

Another voice is Dr. Rory Stewart, who famously walked across Afghanistan in 2002.  He also holds that the US should back off substantially in Afghanistan in order to allow ethnic rivalries to work against the Taliban.  While they would capture some outlying areas, the Uzbek and Tajik rivalries should restrain them from overrunning the country.  A minimal Coalition presence in Kabul would keep the government from collapsing, and allow it to reach out to other Afghans with aid programs and economic support. 

Dr. Stewart isn't envisioning a high-level strategy of the type described above, but rather a sort of "muddling-through."  However, he sees the same basic tension at work:  the Taliban being constrained by rivalries that are suppressed because of our presence.

Dr. Tony Corn at SWJ proposed something similar recently, which he called "A Kilcullen-Biden plan."  His article is interesting because it looks at things from a higher level perspective as well:  can the US actually afford to fight this war?  He doesn't think we can.  Since the COIN model we are currently using requires substantial funding for a long time, if he is correct than a scaled-back model becomes inevitable. 

Can we make such a strategy work, and at a much lower cost in American lives and money?  It depends on whether the central theory is true.  The Taliban were able to overrun most of Afghanistan before, though what became the Northern Alliance did indeed stop them.  How far would we have to pull back, and for how long, before the tensions rising to the surface began to split the insurgency enough to reintroduce Tribal Engagement Teams, for example?

This approach would also mean consigning Afghan women and girls (and any remaining current allies!) in these remote areas to control by the Taliban.  That's a moral cost we'd have to decide that we were prepared to accept. 

Finally, it would create something akin to a safe-haven in those areas where the tribal/ethnic fissures were least.  Pakistan's decision to do this is what precipitated the strong, Taliban-based insurgency we are facing now.  We would be gambling that the new safe-haven would be contained by the fissures, so that the Taliban would have all it could do to deal with newly-opposed tribes and ethnic forces (who would have our support, of course, when they were prepared to accept it).

It's a strategy with some risk, then, and some known costs we'd have to elect to accept.  Nevertheless, it's not a foolish proposal:  some of our best and most experienced believe it can work, while saving American lives and fortunes.

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Workman: Hangin' in Anaheim...

Posted By Mr Wolf

Jeremiah Workman gets to throw out the first pitch at the Anaheim Angels game on Friday, 9.11.09.  Here's the video- be sure to listen to the announcer's audio, and the crowd reaction.  I love it when the manager asks him to just 'hang out for awhile!' down in the dugout.  How cool is that?

Oh, his pitch is a bit high, but its FAR from this one.  You could hear it had heat when it hit the catchers glove...

And for those that need to catch up on who Workman is, take a gander here, here, and here.  His new book is out, as well...

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Scott Kesterson and the Counterinsurgency Academy

Posted By Blackfive

Below is a request from Scott Kesterson to help the Counterinsurgency Academy in Afghanistan:

The Counterinsurgen​cy Academy is located in Kabul, Afghanistan at the base of the ruins of the Queens castle. The purpose of the Academy is to teach and expand the doctrine of population centric concepts for operations in Afghanistan, and beyond. The contributions the Academy is making to Gen. McChrystal's strategy can not be understated, nor can the challenges of implementing an expanded doctrine of population centric operations.

In an attempt to support the operations of the Academy, as well as the many soldiers that attend and instruct here, I have developed a "wish list" on Amazon.com of books in hopes of creating an Honorary Counterinsurgency Learning Library made up entirely of donations from our communities back home. The intent is to further expand the awareness of culture, methods and operations that promote the end goal of national unity, governance and security for the people of Afghanistan.

To find the list, all you need to do is log into Amazon.com, click on "Wish Lists" and then on the right side of the page in the search window for "Wish Lists" type in:

counterinsurgency.institute@gmail.com

The name of the wish list is: COIN Library - Kabul.

I am continually being asked about donations for soldiers and items of need. This list, though only in the initial phases of development, is something that will have a lasting use and impact on the soldiers here at the Academy and the students of the Academy who eventually take what is learned here and apply the concepts downrange. If the interest is there to support the soldiers by way of donations, I would encourage you become involved in this effort through Amazon.com. The shipping address is listed through the "Wish List." If you wish to donate another book for the library not listed on the list, or wish to purchase a book from another source other than Amazon.com, the same mailing address applies. For reference, the mailing address here at the academy is listed below:

Scott Kesterson
COIN Academy
Camp Phoenix
APO AE  09320

Thank you all in advance.

Scott Kesterson.

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Scott Kesterson
Photojournalism / Visual Storytelling
scott.kesterson@gmail.com

Website:
www.scottkesterson.com
Twitter:
www.twitter.com/scott_kesterson
Blog, Afghanistan:
http://kilroyredux.blogspot.com/
Blog, Solo Journalism:
http://solojournalism.blogspot.com/
Film website:  
www.atwarfilm.com

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STEAL THIS BOOK.... NOW!

Posted By Mr Wolf

Yeah, yeah.. Abbie Hoffman got away with that title.  But what I'd like to really recommend is this book, below. I mean, you REALLY need to get this book...

My good friend, Sergeant Major Steve Valley, has finally released his book.  This is a topic that, til now, has not been covered at all by books or press.  SGM Valley and I served together in Baghdad as PAO brothers, trying to keep together all the mayhem that made up the daily press briefings and other workings of the CPIC (Coalition Press Information Center).

From his publisher:

Inside the Fortress isn't a traditional "blood and guts" wartime book. It's a behind the scenes look at life for an Army senior listed leader inside Baghdad's world renowned Green Zone. The book is based on a written journal kept by Steve Valley from the day his Army Reserve unit was mobilized in December 2003, to the night he returned from the Middle East in January 2005.

Inside the Fortress gives readers an up-close look at the inner workings of an Army public affairs unit that dealt with a non-stop barrage of bullets, explosions and convoys on the dangerous Airport Road, all the while trying to satisfy the never ending requests from the media that brought the successes and failures of Operation Iraqi Freedom into American homes every night. Valley lived it for a year and writes of the daily struggles that war had on the men and women that serve in today's all volunteer American military.

 

Whether you are a private citizen, politician, journalist or Soldier, you will envoy Valley's point of view as a husband and father, a military leader and an American Soldier serving in Baghdad.

 

Steve Valley is a 24-year Army veteran whose former Army Reserve unit returned from a year-long deployment to Iraq in February 2005. Valley served as the unit's first sergeant, the senior enlisted Soldier at the Combined Press Information Center (CPIC) and as a media spokesperson for Multi-National Forces-Iraq. He currently serves as a Sergeant Major in the US Army Reserve. He's also an All-American VFW Post Commander and a sustaining member in the AUSA, the USO and the Wounded Warrior Project. Valley is a Massachusetts native now residing in Florida with his wife and two sons.

Ok, that aside, what I can tell you about the content of this book is that its a FANTASTIC read; simple, to the point, and very funny.  Yeah, its like the 'inside baseball' stuff to me, but I can guarantee that you will be amazed at some of the stuff that went on behind the scenes there.

Oh- you can purchase the book HERE, from Publisher Direct.

What is also amazing is that his editor/publisher required him to REMOVE a fantastic amount of stuff, just because they could not fathom that it actually happend.  I can, from first hand knowledge, say that these things DID happen.  The SGM has changed a few names to protect the 'innocent' and those still on duty, but beyond that, this is no work of fiction.

We are trying to get a TV series set up based on this book.  Because of its location, its proximity to every high-level person in the country, and its visibility on the world stage, the CPIC was the epicenter of much that happened in Baghdad over the last 6 years.  MOST of it never before explained nor described anywhere.

Take a look- and stay tuned.  More interviews and information from the SGM are forthcoming.  Also follow updates on Twitter via @warriororg and @sogmedia.

Wolf

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MMA Fans - This Book is for you

Posted By Blackfive

Because so many of you are MMA fans, and because I am quickly becoming one, here is a book I thought you'd want to check out.

Greg Jackson, reknowned in the Mixed Martial Arts world, and LTC Kelly Criger, active duty soldier and columnist for FIGHT! magazine and the Rhino Den, have co-wrote a book on Jackson's fighting style and training methods.

For anyone who's interested in MMA in general or Jackson's coaching methodology and stable of fighters or seriously thinking about getting into the ring, this book is for you.

Amazon Link Here

From a reviewer on Amazon, the book is broken down into these sections:

...useful, practical and hand-on book proves to be a successful collaboration. Their book is organized into six major sections:

* Developing a fight strategy
* The Fundamentals
* Basic Strikes
* Combinations
* The Clinch
* Takedowns
* Street Fighting, Multiple Opponents and Weapons

THE STANDUP GAME, by its very title suggests that this is not just a textbook on the "sweet science" of boxing. You will not find Floyd Mayweather Jr. or Manny Pacquiao researching a spinning backfist or a front snap kick. The range of fighting techniques addressed here highlights the context of MMA fighting. THE STANDUP GAME refers to one of the main pillars or components of mixed martial arts.

The latter, popularized by events such as the Ultimate Fighting Championship, require successful practitioners to have fluency in wrestling, boxing, kicking, and jujitsu submissions. Practitioners who can seamlessly blend transitions from one fighting style to another and combine a balance of effectiveness in these areas learn the recipe for success in the ring or the octagon.

Jackson and Crigger's book provides a useful synthesis of narrative text and succinct instruction through effective use of color photographs in illustrating various components of the standup game. They cover in virtually encyclopedic detail every conceivable combination of standup fighting, including techniques utilized in Muay Thai, a dynamic form of kickboxing (with elbows and knees thrown in) popularized in Thailand. The sections on strategy and street fighting differentiate THE STANDUP GAME from most other books of this genre.

Further, in the final chapter, Jackson and Crigger leave behind the boxing ring and octagon and move to the street (or bar room). The book is worth the price of admission alone for its Chapter Six, which provides useful tips on personal self defense, including: seizing the initiative, countering your opponent's move, breaking chokes, dealing with weapons such as baseball bats, knives and guns...

You can order a copy from Amazon here.

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'Tears In The Darkness'

Posted By Mr Wolf

Another fantastic book has come out very recently- this one written about the Bataan Death March.  Being interested in this horrific escapade in US history since I was little, I am very interested in getting my hands on this book.

I've not yet read it (will do so very soon) but the books site, with some outstanding video (if you visit the site, start with the vids- VERY compelling) is extremely good reading.  I became interested in the Bataan march when I was very young; I would see survivors of Bataan visit Camp Perry, Ohio (just outside Port Clinton) and they kept a marker and presence there to commemorate the 32 men from Co C, 192d Tanker BN that were captured and forced into the march.  Only 10 of them survived the march and imprisonment to return home to Ohio.

The book details events around Ben Steele, now 92, who on April 9, 1942, after ninety-nine days of battle in the Phillipines, was captured by the Japanese and spent one thousand two hundred and forty-four days as a prisoner of war.  Now, if that's not something heroic to survive, I surely don't know what is.

For me, this falls into the realm of the Ghost Soldiers book, another fantastic tale of a rescue mission in the Philippines.  Another choice book, if you have the means.

Wolf

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Exclusive interview w/ author Brad Thor

Posted By Uncle Jimbo

Elise Cooper for BLACKFIVE

New York Times Number one bestselling author Brad Thor has written a new book, “The Apostle.” This fictional book is centered on rescuing a hostage, Dr. Julia Gallo, who is held by the Taliban in Afghanistan.  To head the rescue team, the American President enlists Scot Harvath, a special forces’ operative.   The book’s sub-plot involves a secret service agent, Elise Campbell, who overhears the possibility of the President’s involvement in the death of one his aides.   Blackfive.net had the opportunity to interview Mr. Thor about his new book.

Mr. Thor stated to Blackfive that “as a political thriller writer my job is to be as current as tomorrow’s headlines and to speak with as much firsthand knowledge as possible.” When reading fiction do the readers wonder where fantasy becomes reality? A good fictional political thriller must have plots, sub-plots, and themes that are believable.  There were a few themes in “The Apostle” which could have been based on a realistic situation. 

First, there is the Secret Services’ quandary of overhearing a delicate, personal matter.  In reading this, one reverts back to the Clinton years when there were numerous reports of the President’s infidelity.  How many of Thor’s readers remember the secret service agents being compelled to testimony about President Clinton’s contemporaneous activities?   Thor commented about the secret service agent, Elise Campbell that he wanted her character to have her “own mystery to unravel with and wrestle with her own points.”

Continue reading "Exclusive interview w/ author Brad Thor"

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Bing West's "the strongest tribe"

Posted By Blackfive

Bing West is one of the foremost military authors about the War in Iraq. 

His new book, The Strongest Tribe, goes on sale tomorrow.  You can pre-order it at Amazon or ask for it tomorrow at your local bookstore.  I was sent a copy and finished it last night.

The Strongest Tribe is about the history of the Iraq war.  It begins and ends, very appropriately with Major Doug Zembiec, whom, if you don't know, you should.

The path of The Strongest Tribe takes us through the invasion to the point in 2006 where we essentially were losing the war, then figured out how to win and implemented the Surge strategy.  Bing West was there dozens of times and he chronicles the good, the bad, and the ugly - straight up, neat, no ice.  The best part about this book is that it is the book that Cobra II wanted to be (and many others).  Bing West is not afraid of offending and his sources speak for themselves (and he is highly critical of LTG Sanchez and L. Paul Bremmer).  The only part that I disagreed with was West's assertion that we could have somehow kept the Iraqi Army together after the invasion.  Certainly, some units would have remained but, for the most part, I didn't see many Shia conscripts returning to serve Sunni Officers in most situations.  I had spoken with a lot of soldiers about this - COL (ret) Greg Gardner, in particular, who was the Army's representative at the CPA's Ministry of National Security.

From a tactician's point of view (and an expert in COIN), Bing West gives you the perspective to see what went wrong and what went right. [Edit Note:  This is the first book that I've read that also correctly describes John McCain's fight against Secretary Rumsfeld, Congress and the administration to see a Surge strategy put into place.]

There is much talk of tribes in the book.  You can't discuss Iraq and not talk about the tribal system.  In the end, the strongest tribe wins.  The strongest tribe is the one that is the most flexible and willing to do whatever it takes to win and gather the other tribes to it's fold. 

No surprise to many of you, but it turns out that the American military is the strongest tribe.  We've called it a Caste here before and Greyhawk has discussed it as well.  Perhaps "tribe" is a better description...

Interspersed amongst the stories of the CPA, the State Department, the CIA and the Bush Administration, Bing West shows that our military men and women were making amazing sacrifices and valiant efforts that made success possible.  That's the first half of the book.

And, the second half, from our lessons learned, our generals AND our corporals and sergeants developed an effective strategy and are winning the day - despite a uniformed and uninvolved public.  West ends the book where we are now - on the edge of victory, and he includes a series of myths or OIF urban legends that are a must read.

If you read one book about the good and the bad of our five years in Iraq, you should pick up The Strongest Tribe - it has our highest recommendation.

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Midnight visitors and Faces in the Fog

Posted By Deebow

Some of us still see them at night.  Others see them all the time and it really takes some help to make peace with them.  Even heroes need a brother to lean on.

Captain Nate Self has a book out called "Two Wars"  and if you are not familiar with Captain Self, he was the man who lead the rescue of trapped US Navy SEALs (SEAL Petty Officer Neil Roberts among them) on Takur Ghar.  If you want more than I can give you here, then pick up a copy of Roberts Ridge and Not a Good Day to Die and check out the story.   

This picture is from the roof of my firebase and looking up at the moon rise over Takur Ghar (snow-capped mountain in the center of the photo).  The terrain looks formidable from here.  I can't imagine what it would have been like to be there.

My sincere thanks to Captain Nate Self for showing that this problem can affect everyone and highlighting what needs to be fixed to help other soldiers overcome it.  I would follow him into Hell with a gas can in each hand.  My thanks to him because he is facing the problem of his PTSD with the same leadership that he used to lead his men down the ramp of that MH-47.

Check out the Army Times Article and check out the book.  I am right now and it truly is one of the best reads this year.

You can lean on me Sir....  Lean on Me......

Some prior Blackfive PTSD Posts:

PTSD:  The Warrior Lives!
On PTSD, Or More Properly, On Coming Home
Three Years With PTSD
Midnight Visitors and Faces in the Fog
Traumatic Servicemembers Group Life Insurance
PTSD: An Engineer Suggests a Method

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No Greater Love - Author Interview

Posted By COB6

Download valenzuela.jpg

On the steamy afternoon of July 3, 1863 the fierce fighting at the Battle of Gettysburg was reaching its zenith.  The 19th Virginia Infantry was desperately trying to resist an assault by the 19th Massachusetts Infantry.

Finally the center of the Virginians line collapsed and among the Union soldiers pouring through the breech was a young Corporal from Company I.  By the time the surviving Confederates were forced to withdraw, Union Corporal Joseph H. DeCastro stood surrounded by carnage, clutching the captured colors of the 19th Virginia.

Corporal DeCastro holds the distinction of being the first Hispanic to win the Congressional Medal of Honor.  Since then, at least 43 Hispanic Americans have been awarded the nation's highest honor.

I recently had the opportunity to interview Major General (Ret) Alfred Valenzuela to discuss his new book No Greater Love, the Lives and Times od Hispanic Soldiers.

The book has already received a couple of favorable reviews:

Senator John McCain - Arizona

In this point work, Freddie Valenzuela uses his 33 years of military service as a canvas on which he paints...the moving story of a Hispanic American in service to his nation...I would commend it to you as a wonderful way to explore the nature of service and the meaning of patriotism.

Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison - Texas

From the Revolutionary War to the War on Terror, Hispanic Americans have made enormous sacrifices to protect our freedoms, and I am grateful for their service.  In No Greater Love, General Valenzuela highlights the service and dedication of these brave Americans in our military.

You can read the interview here.  Make sure to get this book.

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