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Will Israel attack Iranian nuke sites?

Almost certainly, and almost certainly before our elections this November. Why? Because they cannot trust the Obama administration to stop the Iranians from building a bomb and they cannot risk an Obama unfettered by voters after his "last election".

There is plenty of obfuscation surrounding current US strategy regarding Israel's well-established policy of self-preservation when tyrants in the neighborhood start nuking up. They don't cotton to it and have proved this several times. A nuclear Iran represents a fundamentally more existential threat to Israel's existence of than either Saddam's Iraq or Assad's Syria did. The 12th Imam happy cultists running the place don't give anyone a real good sense that they will make logical decisions. This is one thing Andrew Exum get's correct in his Abu Muqawama piece discussing why the Israelis are keeping their plans about this a secret from the US.

One of the reasons the United States failed to anticipate the Cuban Missile Crisis, Jervis notes, is that the United States failed to imagine that Nikita Khrushchev could have made such a terrible mistake.

If anyone thinks they Mullahs are more stable than Kruschev, I think they should reconsider. But the funny thing about Abu Mookie's piece is that it ignores the elephant in the room. The Israelis don't trust the Obama administration, nor should they. The closest he comes to noting this determinant factor is this.

Israel has reason to deceive the United States regarding its own intentions. The Obama administration has consistently delivered two clear messages to Israel’s leaders regarding Iran’s nuclear program: First, Israel should not contemplate a strike on the program; second, the United States takes responsibility for deterring Iran or, in the event that fails, retarding the program itself. Many in the U.S. government, including both in the administration and the U.S. military, would be livid with Israel’s leaders if they unilaterally attack Iran. So Israel, if it indeed decides to act on its own, would have reason to keep that intent hidden from the United States.

Obama and his foreign policy team come from the far left that views the Israelis as responsible for the woes of the Middle East. They have shown nothing but contempt for them and by setting unrealistic expectations about settlements and other negotiating points, made backward progress in the peace talks with Israel and the Palestinians.

In addition they have been leaking information in torrents regarding US war games, Israeli basing deals etc. to attempt to pressure the Israelis into inaction. Not bloody likely and so in the end, this is just another traditional ally under the bus. Our only true ally in the Middle East can join the Brits under Obama's "Lead from Behind" campaign bus. His foreign policy starts and stops with "I shot bin Laden in the eye". Anything even vaguely related to the neocon, global, conspiracy is gonna get you a knife right in the back.

There is near zero reason for Israel to trust that Obama will honor the empty words he mouths about the US ensuring that Iran will not build a bomb. He won't and he is busy trying to cover his well-exposed backside by chatting with the Mullah's, a Euro-weenie commissioner, and some of the Iranian's biggest trading partners who will not allow any substantive action from the UN. Nothing useful will come of this formalized lying in formal wear but the nibbling of petit-fours and sipping of mint tea poolside at a four star resort.

Obama has already made the calculation that he prefers a nuclear-armed Iran to the unknown results of a US or Israeli strike on Iranian nuke sites. That leaves the ball in Bibi Netanyahu's court. Obama may be comfortable being the US President who presided over the rise of a nuclear nuttah regime, but Bibi is not going to be the Israeli PM who did the same. Should be an interesting Summer. I predict hot and dry with a smattering of explosions and secondary proxy storms.