Almost certainly, and almost certainly before our elections this November. Why? Because they cannot trust the Obama administration to stop the Iranians from building a bomb and they cannot risk an Obama unfettered by voters after his "last election".
There is plenty of obfuscation surrounding current US strategy regarding Israel's well-established policy of self-preservation when tyrants in the neighborhood start nuking up. They don't cotton to it and have proved this several times. A nuclear Iran represents a fundamentally more existential threat to Israel's existence of than either Saddam's Iraq or Assad's Syria did. The 12th Imam happy cultists running the place don't give anyone a real good sense that they will make logical decisions. This is one thing Andrew Exum get's correct in his Abu Muqawama piece discussing why the Israelis are keeping their plans about this a secret from the US.
One of the reasons the United States failed to anticipate the Cuban Missile Crisis, Jervis notes, is that the United States failed to imagine that Nikita Khrushchev could have made such a terrible mistake.
If anyone thinks they Mullahs are more stable than Kruschev, I think they should reconsider. But the funny thing about Abu Mookie's piece is that it ignores the elephant in the room. The Israelis don't trust the Obama administration, nor should they. The closest he comes to noting this determinant factor is this.
Israel has reason to deceive the United States regarding its own intentions. The Obama administration has consistently delivered two clear messages to Israel’s leaders regarding Iran’s nuclear program: First, Israel should not contemplate a strike on the program; second, the United States takes responsibility for deterring Iran or, in the event that fails, retarding the program itself. Many in the U.S. government, including both in the administration and the U.S. military, would be livid with Israel’s leaders if they unilaterally attack Iran. So Israel, if it indeed decides to act on its own, would have reason to keep that intent hidden from the United States.
Obama and his foreign policy team come from the far left that views the Israelis as responsible for the woes of the Middle East. They have shown nothing but contempt for them and by setting unrealistic expectations about settlements and other negotiating points, made backward progress in the peace talks with Israel and the Palestinians.
In addition they have been leaking information in torrents regarding US war games, Israeli basing deals etc. to attempt to pressure the Israelis into inaction. Not bloody likely and so in the end, this is just another traditional ally under the bus. Our only true ally in the Middle East can join the Brits under Obama's "Lead from Behind" campaign bus. His foreign policy starts and stops with "I shot bin Laden in the eye". Anything even vaguely related to the neocon, global, conspiracy is gonna get you a knife right in the back.
There is near zero reason for Israel to trust that Obama will honor the empty words he mouths about the US ensuring that Iran will not build a bomb. He won't and he is busy trying to cover his well-exposed backside by chatting with the Mullah's, a Euro-weenie commissioner, and some of the Iranian's biggest trading partners who will not allow any substantive action from the UN. Nothing useful will come of this formalized lying in formal wear but the nibbling of petit-fours and sipping of mint tea poolside at a four star resort.
Obama has already made the calculation that he prefers a nuclear-armed Iran to the unknown results of a US or Israeli strike on Iranian nuke sites. That leaves the ball in Bibi Netanyahu's court. Obama may be comfortable being the US President who presided over the rise of a nuclear nuttah regime, but Bibi is not going to be the Israeli PM who did the same. Should be an interesting Summer. I predict hot and dry with a smattering of explosions and secondary proxy storms.
Former Paratrooper and Army Officer, "Blackfive" started this blog upon learning of the valorous sacrifice of a friend that was not reported by the journalist whose life he saved. Email: blackfive AT gmail DOT com
Retired Special Operations Master Sergeant, Jim Hanson ("Uncle Jimbo") is now focused on writing about the military, politics, intelligence operations and foreign policy. Email: jimbo AT unclejimbo DOT com
Writer, photographer, and raconteur C. Blake Powers is the Laughing Wolf. He is independent in politics and covers topics including journalism, military, weapons, preparedness, space, science, cooking, food and wine, product and book reviews, and even spirituality. Email: wolf1 AT laughingwolf DOT net Laughing Wolf's Amazon Wish List
Bill Paisley, otherwise known as Pinch, is a 22 year (ongoing) active and
reserve naval aviator. He blogs over at www.instapinch.com on a veritable
cornucopia of various and sundry items and will bring a tactical naval
aviator's perspective to Blackfive. Readers be warned: any comments of or
about the F-14 Tomcat will be reverential and spoken in low, hushed tones.
Email: wpaisley AT comcast DOT net
Mr. Wolf has over 26 years in the Army, Army NG, and USAR. He’s Airborne with 5 years as an NCO, before becoming an officer. Mr. Wolf has had 4 company commands. Signal Corp is his basic branch, and Public Affairs is his functional area. He recently served 22 straight months in Kuwait and Iraq, in Intel, PA, and senior staff of MNF-I. Mr. Wolf is now an IT executive. He is currently working on a book on media and the Iraq war. Functional gearhead.
In Iraq, he received the moniker of Mr. Wolf after the Harvey Kietel character in Pulp Fiction, when "challenges" arose, they called on Mr. Wolf...
Email: TheDOTMrDOTWolfAT gmail DOT com
Deebow is a Staff Sergeant and a Military Police Squad Leader in the Army National Guard. In a previous life, he served in the US Navy. He has over 19 years of experience in both the Maritime and Land Warfare; including deployments to Southwest Asia, Thailand, the South Pacific, South America and Egypt. He has served as a Military Police Team Leader and Protective Services Team Leader and he has served on assignments with the US State Department, US Air Force Security Police, US Army Criminal Investigation Division, and the US Drug Enforcement Administration. He recently spent time in Afghanistan working with, training and fighting alongside Afghan Soldiers and is now focused on putting his 4 year Political Science degree to work by writing about foreign policy, military security policy and politics.
McQ has 28 years active and reserve service. Retired. Infantry officer. Airborne and Ranger. Consider my 3 years with the 82nd as the most fun I ever had with my clothes on. Interests include military issues and policy and veteran's affairs.
Email: mcq51 -at - bellsouth -dot- net
Tantor is a former USAF navigator/weapon system officer (WSO) in F-4E Phantoms who served in the US, Asia, and Europe. He is now a curmudgeonly computer geek in Washington, DC, picking the taxpayers pocket. His avocations are current events, aviation, history, and conservative politics.
Twenty-three years of Active and Reserve service in the US Army in SF (18B), Infantry and SOF Signal jobs with operational deployments to Bosnia and Africa. Since retiring he's worked as Senior Defense Analyst on SOF and Irregular Warfare projects and currently ensconced in the emerging world of Cyberspace.
Major Pain --
A Marine who began his blog in Iraq and reflects back on what he learned there and in Afghanistan. To the point opinions, ideas and thoughts on military, political and the media from One Marine’s View. Email: onemarinesview AT yahoo DOT com
Uber Pig was an Infantryman from late 1991 until early 1996, serving with Second Ranger Battalion, I Corps, and then 25th Infantry Division. At the time, the Army discriminated against enlisted soldiers who wanted use the "Green to Gold" program to become officers, so he left to attend Stanford University. There, he became expert in detecting, avoiding, and surviving L-shaped ambushes, before dropping out to be as entrepreneurial as he could be. He is now the founder of a software startup serving the insurance and construction industries, and splits time between Lake Tahoe, Boonville, and San Francisco, CA.
Uber Pig writes for Blackfive a) because he's the proud brother of an enlisted Civil Affairs Reservist who currently serves in Iraq, b) because he looks unkindly on people who make it harder for the military in general, and for his brother in particular, to succeed at their missions and come home in victory, and c) because the Blackfive readers and commenters help keep him sane.
COB6 spent 24 years in the active duty Army that included 5 combat tours with service in the 1st Ranger Battalion and 1st Special Forces Group . COB6 was enlisted (E-7) and took the OCS route to a commission. COB6 retired a few years back as a field grade Infantry officer.
Currently COB6 has a son in the 82nd Airborne that just returned from his third tour and has a newly commissioned daughter in the 4th Infantry Division.