BLACKFIVE: Next steps in Iran- An opportunity beckons

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Next steps in Iran- An opportunity beckons

Posted By Uncle Jimbo

The immediate revolution in Iran has shifted to a longer term instability and the sands under the Mullahs and the Revolutionary Guard are shifting.

This report that the Saudis would tacitly support, by not stopping, an Israeli transit of their airspace en route to bombing Iran's known nuke facilities is interesting. It's even more interesting that there have been no loud denials from the Saudis. That is certainly a signal from them. The Israelis face an unmistakable threat from the current regime in Iran, but if it was toppled it could bring relief to many of their problems. Most of their enemies (Hezbollah, Hamas etc.) are funded, trained and in many cases take marching orders from Teheran. While they are well aware an attack on Iran could unite the country against them, it is not inconceivable that they would still bomb the facilities and remind the Iranian opposition that they share a common enemy.

The rallying force for Iranian opposition has been Mousavi and now he has announced he will form a political party. It is somewhat surprising that he remains free and able to do so. It seemed likely he would be swept up with the thousands detained during the wide-spread protests after the election. The regime may believe detaining him would raise his popularity, but this latest move seems very provocative.

Another factor that should be considered now is the possibility of recruiting sources within Iran that have detailed knowledge of the nuclear program. Lack of actionable intel about the number and location of these facilities has always been the top reason to doubt the efficacy of airstrikes. In addition having information or agents on the inside greatly increases the possibility of sabotage as a method. The large number of disaffected Iranians obviously includes some of the many educated engineers and administrators working on these programs. It only takes a couple to provide the keys to knocking this effort back a few steps at least. Airstrikes can be the implied threat and again if a decent act of sabotage can be conducted the follow on is to remind the Iranian people that their economic suffering is caused by the same fanatics whose pursuit of nukes has exiled them from much of the rest of the world.

For a long while US policy advocated regime change in Iran, both for the benefit of the Iranian people and the safety of all nations. Currently our administration seems hell-bent on negotiating with these theocratic tyrants while the best possibility of freeing the Iranian people stares them in the eye. The possibility of negotiating a grand bargain with the Iranians was a pipe dream all along and the actions of the regime in response to it's farcical election shows their legitimacy is stolen. The US should not get involved in directly attacking Iran, but we have so many other weapons in our arsenal that we can deploy i.e. sanctions on companies selling gasoline to the regime, vocal support for free elections monitored by outside agencies, coordination with local nations threatened by Iranian influence, not to mention covert help to internal dissidents in both technical means and organizing.

We obviously walk a fine line in this, but we need to look at the opportunity presented to prevent the horrific possibility of a nuclear-armed Iran and seriously consider the most likely means of stopping that, which is regime change, preferably from within.