BLACKFIVE: Roundtable: High-Level Iraq Update

Roundtable: High-Level Iraq Update

Posted By Grim

Rear Admiral Patrick Driscoll is the deputy chief for Strategic Communications, MNF-I. That means he's entitled to speak on a broad range of high-level topics that most military officers we talk to would step aside from as "out of my lane." We had a roundtable with him this week (transcript here).

When I came home from Iraq in late March, I wrote of three basic challenges, of which the Surge had solved one. The second one was under hot negotiation at the time: the role of Sadr.

For quite some time Sadr has been purging JAM of elements that do not obey him. Sadr has said that he will disown members who violate the ceasefire, excepting in self-defense. His proposed truce calls for patience from his members, and comes "after receiving assurances" that his membership will not be targetted if he has them stand down.

Those who continue to fight will be ready prey for the Iraqi security forces, many of whom are from the Badr faction. As Wretchard noted, the de facto arbiter of the Shia situation is al Sistani, who has declared that the militias are not legitimate authorities in Iraq.... Sadr's own rhetoric, meanwhile, has in this cycle been markedly different from his rhetoric in 2004. It appears that he wants to move into a political role, rather than trying to overthrow and replace the central government.

I asked RADM Driscoll where this stood today.

GRIM: We've seen that the militant branch of the Sadrist trend, Jaish al-Mahdi, has fallen off in importance in the last few months, since I left. I was there in March, is when I left. Do you think that the Sadrist political element is still going to do as well as was being projected in the provincial elections when they come around?

ADM. DRISCOLL: You know, it's hard to predict how they're going to do. We're kind of taking a wait-and-see approach, just like everybody else, you know, much like our elections in the United States.

But you know, just to give you a sense of the strength of Jaish al-Mahdi, and really I would term it more as the Sadr trend, because the Sadr trend is Sadr's political arm. And they're the ones that are going to be involved in the election. And so what Sadr has chosen to do post-Sadr City operations is transform his organization into a political group, if you will, and has said that for the most part, he's going to disavow violence. And so his party is working, just like the other political parties now, to gain support in order to compete in the election.

And that's a huge step forward in this process for the new Iraq here, because we have people that were former irreconcilables joining the process and engaging in the democratic process. And as you know, you know, that's the key to being successful in this counterinsurgency fight.

You'll want to read the whole thing.

The "hot negotiations" underway in April focused on Basra, al Kut, and then Sadr City, and ended with a clear advantage to the central government in Iraq. GEN Petraeus said that the Sadrist trend is a "'legitimate political movement' that could play a constructive role." Without regard to Sadr himself, it is a movement with strong and old roots in a large swath of Iraq's Shi'ite communities. Bringing them into the political process is a large step forward to resolving that "second problem."

I think Maliki moved forward to challenge Sadr more directly and more quickly than many in the US military wanted; but, as the head of an independent state, he has the right to do that. He had to call on US aid in Basra, perhaps because he moved so fast, but he succeeded in his basic goal of forcing Sadr to abandon plans to serve as a second-government. Now, Sadr has to compete for seats in the real government -- and appears to be doing so. Just as making the MILF into a political movement instead of a guerrilla one remains the key to success in the Philippines, so too is it important to see the Sadrists complete the transition from guerrillas to politicians.

Not that any of us love politicians. It's still -- as the Admiral says -- a "huge step forward."

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August 01, 2008 • Permalink
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Comments

When I came home from Iraq in late March, I wrote of three basic challenges, of which the Surge had solved one. The second one was under hot negotiation at the time: the role of Sadr.

For quite some time Sadr has been purging JAM of elements that do not obey him. Sadr has said that he will disown members who violate the ceasefire, excepting in self-defense. His proposed truce calls for patience from his members, and comes "after receiving assurances" that his membership will not be targetted if he has them stand down.

Those who continue to fight will be ready prey for the Iraqi security forces, many of whom are from the Badr faction. As Wretchard noted, the de facto arbiter of the Shia situation is al Sistani, who has declared that the militias are not legitimate authorities in Iraq.... Sadr's own rhetoric, meanwhile, has in this cycle been markedly different from his rhetoric in 2004. It appears that he wants to move into a political role, rather than trying to overthrow and replace the central government.

I asked RADM Driscoll where this stood today.

GRIM: We've seen that the militant branch of the Sadrist trend, Jaish al-Mahdi, has fallen off in importance in the last few months, since I left. I was there in March, is when I left. Do you think that the Sadrist political element is still going to do as well as was being projected in the provincial elections when they come around?

ADM. DRISCOLL: You know, it's hard to predict how they're going to do. We're kind of taking a wait-and-see approach, just like everybody else, you know, much like our elections in the United States.

But you know, just to give you a sense of the strength of Jaish al-Mahdi, and really I would term it more as the Sadr trend, because the Sadr trend is Sadr's political arm. And they're the ones that are going to be involved in the election. And so what Sadr has chosen to do post-Sadr City operations is transform his organization into a political group, if you will, and has said that for the most part, he's going to disavow violence. And so his party is working, just like the other political parties now, to gain support in order to compete in the election.

And that's a huge step forward in this process for the new Iraq here, because we have people that were former irreconcilables joining the process and engaging in the democratic process. And as you know, you know, that's the key to being successful in this counterinsurgency fight.

You'll want to read the whole thing.

Not that any of us love politicians. It's still -- as the Admiral says -- a "huge step forward."

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