BLACKFIVE: Update on Iraq from BG Terry Wolff

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Update on Iraq from BG Terry Wolff

Posted By Mr Wolf

The roundtable this week was an interesting one. Uncle Jimbo and I joined in with bloggers from around the 'sphere, to get an update on what was going on in Iraq and elsewhere.

To say it was upbeat would be an understatement...

BG Wolff, Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Iraq, National Security Council, The White House, Washington, DC, briefed the 8 of us on the latest developments.

While I'll never be the note-taker that Grim or Laughing Wolf are, I can bring to you these updates from the call:

Basra is far quieter than some of the media will tell you. There are points where its not, but that is primarily due to elements fighting each other for control there. Its far less pervasive than you would be led to believe.

Trends: key indicators from the post-Ramadan period are compelling. IED's are down SIXTY PERCENT for the time period; Sectarian violence is down SIXTY TO SEVENTY PERCENT FOR THE PERIOD; attacks on ISF and IPD are down SIXTY PERCENT; and attacks on civilians are down over FIFTY PERCENT. This is, to put it lightly, shocking. Ramadan typically has been a period of larger, more intense attacks; this year, it was extremely quiet in most areas.

To what do they owe this trend? BG Wolff outlined the following:
1. More forces. With the surge in full swing, the additional forces combined with the new tactics allowed greater presence all around, and gave us the ability to target and concentrate on specific trouble spots and target AQI forces.

2. Benefits of reconciliation. Especially in al Anbar province, where this reconciliatory attitude is most prevalent. Sheiks, leaders of local governments an police forces, as well as civilians are extremely tired of AQI, the extremists, and their violence.

3. Moqtada/SAM. Their 'ceasefire' is a contributing factor; there are exceptions and differences in some areas (usually atributed to breakaway groups) but they have had much lower activity.

''As locals contribute to security efforts, it has a cascading effect across neighborhoods'' was one quote from the General.

Bill Ardolino asked about the economic efforts and how that will assist in our efforts- as the General said, as economic activity begins to rise, it becomes a contributing factor to the security efforts of the rest of the Iraqi society. (Watch Bill's blogs for lots more on the economic front). The General broke down some of the ways funds move into the economy- there are 3 basic sources, and they are:

      1. CERF funds- these are those used at the discretion of the local commanders.
      2. PRT (DoS) distribution channels- the Provincial Reconstruction Teams are getting more and more out to the local economy, to include that from USAID.
      3. Iraqi Government funds. Non-salary funding from the Iraqi government is getting pushed out again- from the '06 budget (Iraqi funds) about 80% of it has been disbursed; it has all been allocated and committed, but they are still working distribution channels. For the '07 Iraqi budget, about 50% of it has been committed to projects, but they are not yet sure how much has been disbursed.

The Kurdish situation is 'a significant concern', as the PKK continues to use Northern Iraq as a base to attack from.

Uncle Jimbo may add some comments, and I hope he does...

More later, as we get more info.

-Wolf