Economist on Iraq's false dawns

Posted By Blackfive

From the Economist that, as usual, succinctly outlines the "surge" strategy and difficulty in succeeding:

...Most likely the American and Iraqi forces will go on arresting specific Mahdi Army commanders but will not directly assault Sadr City. The Americans admit they cannot put all the militia's estimated 60,000 members behind bars. They hope to buy off many of them through job-creation schemes that have been tried in the past but rarely persevered with. Also, the Americans are setting up outposts in Sunni areas where Shia militias have been particularly active, even though that makes them vulnerable to Sunni insurgents.

The best gauge of success will not be the number of Mahdi Army people arrested but whether the number of bound Sunni bodies with signs of torture that turn up in the morgue, in the Tigris river, or in other favoured dumping grounds begins to dip in the coming months. The outgoing American general, George Casey, says it may not be until late summer that Iraqi civilians start to “feel safe in their neighbourhoods”. That is what President George Bush's promised “surge” of American troops is meant to facilitate.

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Another devastating Sunni insurgent attack may be enough to persuade Mr Maliki's government to end his new get-tough policy against Shia militias or even provoke Mr Sadr's followers into flooding into the streets to attack Sunnis, Americans, Iraqi government forces or anyone else in their way. Iraq has had many false dawns in the past three years. Mr Maliki's apparent willingness to curb the militias is only a glint of light.

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Economist on Iraq's false dawns

From the Economist that, as usual, succinctly outlines the "surge" strategy and difficulty in succeeding:

...Most likely the American and Iraqi forces will go on arresting specific Mahdi Army commanders but will not directly assault Sadr City. The Americans admit they cannot put all the militia's estimated 60,000 members behind bars. They hope to buy off many of them through job-creation schemes that have been tried in the past but rarely persevered with. Also, the Americans are setting up outposts in Sunni areas where Shia militias have been particularly active, even though that makes them vulnerable to Sunni insurgents.

The best gauge of success will not be the number of Mahdi Army people arrested but whether the number of bound Sunni bodies with signs of torture that turn up in the morgue, in the Tigris river, or in other favoured dumping grounds begins to dip in the coming months. The outgoing American general, George Casey, says it may not be until late summer that Iraqi civilians start to “feel safe in their neighbourhoods”. That is what President George Bush's promised “surge” of American troops is meant to facilitate.

<...>

Another devastating Sunni insurgent attack may be enough to persuade Mr Maliki's government to end his new get-tough policy against Shia militias or even provoke Mr Sadr's followers into flooding into the streets to attack Sunnis, Americans, Iraqi government forces or anyone else in their way. Iraq has had many false dawns in the past three years. Mr Maliki's apparent willingness to curb the militias is only a glint of light.

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